When do people deserve a shiny new present? (Raid Progression)

Note before I begin: Effloressence being unlinked to Living Seed gets ten thumbs up from me. It’s about time they did what we were all begging and pleading for them to do. Hopefully what this means is that they finally get a metric for how few druids will still actually take the talent and then redesign it accordingly.

There has been a lot of debate, especially among some people that I know, about whether it is fair to wait until 4.2 to release the Firelands raid. This is clearly completely independent of whether the instance is complete or not which it seems like it is not. It is more a general dissatisfaction these players are feeling because they happen to be completely done with the current content (completed all heroics). Total Biscuit was commenting on the statistics involved as to what bosses people have actually killed on both normal and heroic and I thought I’d just throw that out here.

Based on Wow-Progress percentages there are effectively ~50,000 guilds attempting content reported. Knowing these guilds are a mixture of 10 and 25 man I can only approximate the average number of raiders working on content at any one moment that report to the site. I am going to say that 10 man guilds will probably stock up to roughly 15 people and 25 man guilds will stock upwards of 32 (though some may do more) putting the average number of players at about 24 per guild. This means you have somewhere around 1,200,000 players reporting into Wow-progress. This is a completely fictitious number but it lets me quantify things for the moment. These are the numbers of players that have killed the following bosses based on the total number of reported players (1,200,000):

Normal Mode Content:

Blackwing Descent:

Magmaw:   1,106,180 people (93.75%)

Omnotron Defense System:  1,008,550 people (85.48%)

Maloriak:   853,896 people (72.37%)

Atramedes:   692,544 people (58.69%)

Chimaeron:   678,672 people (57.52%)

Nefarian:   234,336 people (19.86%)

Bastion of Twilight:

Halfus Wyrmbreaker:   1,033,900 people (87.62%)

Valiona and Theralion:   873,168 people (74.00%)

Ascendant Council:   636,024 people (53.90%)

Cho’gall:   432,288 people (36.64%)

Throne of the Four Winds:

Conclave of Wind:   778,992 people (66.02%)

Al’akir:   326,880 people (27.70%)


Heroic Mode Content:

Blackwing Descent:

Magmaw:   26,424 people (2.24%)

Omnotron Defense System:   17,816 people (1.59%)

Maloriak:   67,008 people (5.68%)

Atramedes:   72,696 people (6.16%)

Chimaeron:   116,400 people (9.86%)

Nefarian:   6,144 people (0.52%)

Bastion of Twilight:

Halfus Wyrmbreaker:   196,080 people (16.62%)

Valiona and Theralion:   10,416 people (0.88%)

Ascendant Council:   2,952 people (0.25%)

Cho’gall:   3,000 people (0.25%)

Sinestra:   1,623 people (0.14%)

Throne of the Four Winds:

Conclave of Wind:  27,312 people (2.31%)

Al’akir:   6,864 people (0.58%)

Be aware I understand the actual number of players is larger, but this is a good way to understand what we are looking at. WoW claims 12 million players but I am hard pressed to say that all 12 million players are actively playing and I would assume a large chunk of those are casual, non-raiding RP’ers, or new to the game and leveling. That being said I’ve bolded the content that under 5% of the reporting raiding population has completed. That is a good bit of the available hardmoes (9 out of 13). This is a staggeringly low percent of raiders at this current point in time. I’ll be honest that I’m one of them having just started heroics myself. The concept of adding new content when the vast majority (roughly 80%) of the raiding public has not completed a single heroic encounter is difficult…though in time it will have to come. Even when 4.2 comes out there will still be many guilds that will not have completed a single hard mode and by that point I have a feeling they’d be ok with it.

Five percent is purely a magical threshold originally thrown out by developers when referring back to the original Naxxramas. A very small subset of players set foot in Naxxramas let alone had any measurable degree of success. I had a bit more free time to raid back then (something I wouldn’t want to ever go back to) and was lucky enough to clear the place prior to the release of Burning Crusade talent changes. I really enjoyed putting in the effort and have since not been able to fully clear the content each expansion (close in WotLK) but I’ve never felt unsatisfied. When the time comes for Blizzard to release Firelands they will do so at a time they feel will best accommodate a specific tier of raiders in the game. By that point I have a feeling many of the top tier guild will be burning out and only raiding one or two nights a week tops, and there will still be a number of guilds struggling to kill Nefarian on normal. The tricky part is satisfying a specific majority of the players when timing the release. I hope that Blizzard has improved their ability to spread their content out a lot better than they did in Wrath of the Lich King.



One response to “When do people deserve a shiny new present? (Raid Progression)

  1. I am one of those non raiders currently since I have the real life bug ha. I’m hoping though that by the time I graduate (and thusly get a laptop and wifi) that I will have my druid close to 85 and will be able to catch the end of the firelands, so I don’t mind the wait at all. As far as for the super high end raiders, they always have this downtime since they kill everything so fast. I know they don’t like having to raid longer but I”m pretty sure blizz just doesn’t want another ulduar incident (releasing toc too soon).

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